spotfxtrader

June 27, 2011 by guidoromero
As I speculated some two years ago, it seems to me that if anyone should leave the Euro it is Germany. The rationale is that weak members need the union more than the union needs them. Conversely, the union needs strong members more than strong members need it.

Even assuming Greece should leave the union, I don’t see how other weak members could stay on. If Greece goes, borrowing costs will sky rocket for all other weak members thereby hastening their demise. This in turn brings about two dilemmas. First, if all weak members start falling off the wagon then how many members other than Germany might be left? Second, even assuming Greece should go, this will bring about the marking to market of Greece’s debt held by the ECB… which I think should bring about the marking to market of all other sovereign debt held there… in other words this would be the “poof!” moment for the ECB thus the dissolution of the EU…

In my view, the path of least complication is if Germany quits the Euro and the EU

There is actually a faint hope that with the bayonets of the German taxpayers pointed at their arses, the dumbf*ck German politicians might make the right choice. All is now crystal clear; It’s a race to become toilet paper between the Euro and the US Dollar now.

Sorry, second thoughts… Can politicians admit mistakes ?

Oh shit…